Anchorage’s economy faces challenges—an expected natural gas shortage is just one of them—but a few developments are positive.
That was the message at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation luncheon in early August. Twice a year, the group invites more than a thousand businesspeople to the Dena’ina Convention Center to examine economic trends facing the municipality and southcentral Alaska in general.
As AEDC CEO Jon Bittner described it, Anchorage is in the third era that began in 2015-19 with a recession driven by a decline in oil prices that sent the state’s finances sliding. Then Anchorage, and the rest of the world, experienced the economic slump that came in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. In the last four years, the municipality’s economy has been recovering slowly, hampered by outmigration. The AEDC produces a report about Anchorage economic trends.
“The state is recovering faster than the city,” Bittner said. However, the municipality has gained 12,000 jobs in the last five years.
Consumer confidence falls
One of the headlines from the report is that consumer confidence in Anchorage dropped to its second-lowest point on record last year. Survey respondents are tapping into a feeling that is backed up by data. According to Alaska Department of Labor Employment data, Anchorage's share of Alaska's total employment has declined in 10 of the last 11 years (46.5% in 2015 to 45.1% in 2025). Another, related factor, is that the population and the working-age labor force peaked around 2013, two years before this report's employment data begins, meaning Anchorage entered its current employment situation already inside a demographic contraction.
The statewide working-age population (those between the ages of 15 and 64) fell by roughly 6.2%, or 31,576 people between 2015 and 2025. But Anchorage experienced a more dramatic decline, with the working-age population falling 8.9% (18,680 people) during the same time period.
Along with these changes, the share of the statewide, working-age population located in Anchorage declined from 41.2% to 40.0%. This trend coincides with Anchorage losing overall market share in Alaska's economy as businesses set up in Mat-Su Borough, the Kenai Peninsula and elsewhere.
Anchorage also has seen its cost of living hover well above the national average. Housing costs are the fastest-rising component.
On top of that, uncertainty is mounting surrounding Southcentral Alaska's long-term natural gas supply, rising operating costs, and the reductions in federal spending in a state that has long depended on investments from Washington, D.C.
National outlook
The keynote speaker was Lisa D. Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She’s one of the people who votes whether to raise or lower interest rates. She said she would be in favor of raising interest rates in order to stem inflation, which in June 2026 was 3.5%, down from the 4.2% inflation rate in May but well above the 2% target the Federal Reserve tries to maintain.
Positive news
Bittner said the nature of Anchorage’s employment has changed. No longer is the oil industry such a big employer. The healthcare industry is where growth is. You can see it in building construction that support the healthcare industry. For example, a new crisis stabilization center is going up on the corner of Tudor and Elmore roads. It’s a project of Southcentral Foundation. The logistics industry is also a bright spot, led by the importance of cargo at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport.
Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson is also the verge of a growth spurt. A $2 billion investment in the base will bring about 2,700 new military personnel and families to the community.
The luncheon also featured a panel of local leaders to explain what they see happening in their industries, and they represented areas of growth. The panel speakers were Deborah Berini, chief executive of Providence Alaska, Marilyn Romano, regional vice president of Alaska Airlines, Cheryl Siemers, chancellor of University of Alaska Anchorage, Curtis McQueen, executive director of the Alaska Native Village Corporation Association, and Col. Stephen Polacek, deputy joint base commander, JBER.
Although there is growth in other sectors now, there is more diversity in incomes in the healthcare and logistics sectors. That means that although they are high-paying positions within both sectors, they do not provide the one-for-one replacement of the earnings once generated by the oil and gas industry.
